It's-all-too-common

It's a universal experience. You feel personally attacked or demoralised when it happens, correct?

The good news is there's a solution, which I'll share in a minute. But first, knowing the issue is key to understanding the solution.

Lost on traders is:
Trading is
not waiting for a pattern or setup to appear to enter the market—that's amateur hour.

Instead:
Imagine you're a detective solving a crime. You start by gathering evidence and—like a puzzle—putting the pieces together to form a plausible thesis.

The same applies to trading. But instead of solving a crime, you're solving:

  • Who's going to move the price?
  • Why will they move the price?
  • Where will they move the price to?
 
What do you notice about the questions above? They're focused on the actions of human beings, and for good reason.
 
If not familiar, the Medallion fund is famed for the best record in investing history.

It's a fund that trades using computer-programmed models. Founder Jim Simons revealed:

"We don't want to predict price, but we want to predict when other market participants are going to do something."

Cycles, sectors, technology, and market activities are always changing, which is why trading strategies have short shelf lives.

The only approach built to last is rooted in human behaviour because human beings don't change.

 

But what about playbook trades?

Let me explain:

You did or still travel the same route to and from work.

But ignoring the time they take, there are alternative routes you can choose.

Price takes different routes from one price level to another regularly. Each signature trade is a map of a one of the routes price can take.

If and when the market starts agreeing with your thesis, choose the signature trade matching the current route.

Now you have accurate directions to trade your thesis. Make sense?

 

A note on human behaviour:


You can pay experts on human behaviour who'll tell you everything there is to know about:

  • Unconscious bias,
  • What happens at a brain-chemical level and,
  • How it impacts decision-making.

But ask them to show you all the different ways it's expressed in the markets, and it's... crickets.

Yet the footage below is your front-row seat to a trading approach rooted in human behaviour.

Human beings don't change, so these principles have always been effective and will continue to be so in the future.

Now's the perfect time to cement your understanding of how effective trading is when based on human behaviour with the 3 minute demonstration below.
 

 


Forex and derivatives trading is a highly competitive and often extremely fast-paced environment. It only rewards individuals who attain the required level of skill and expertise to compete. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss to unskilled and inexperienced players. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD recovers toward 1.1450 as focus shifts to US CPI data

EUR/USD recovers toward 1.1450 as focus shifts to US CPI data

EUR/USD is recovering ground toward 1.1450 in the European session on Wednesday. The pair finds demand as the US Dollar pares gains, led by easing trade tensions between the United States and China. Further upside appears capped as traders turn cautious ahead of the high-impact US CPI inflation data. 

GBP/USD remains offered below 1.3500 ahead of US CPI release

GBP/USD remains offered below 1.3500 ahead of US CPI release

GBP/USD maintains the offered tone below 1.3500 in Wednesday's European trading. The Pound Sterling stays defensive due to the disappointing UK employment report while the US Dollar holds steady amid US-China trade optimism, ahead of the May inflation data. 

Japanese Yen remains on the back foot; lacks bearish conviction amid hawkish BoJ expectations

Japanese Yen remains on the back foot; lacks bearish conviction amid hawkish BoJ expectations

The Japanese Yen extends its intraday consolidative price move through the early European session on Wednesday and is currently placed near a two-week low touched against its American counterpart the previous day. Data released earlier today showed that Japan's annual wholesale inflation slowed in May, taking some pressure off the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. 


Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD recovers toward 1.1450 as focus shifts to US CPI data

EUR/USD recovers toward 1.1450 as focus shifts to US CPI data

EUR/USD is recovering ground toward 1.1450 in the European session on Wednesday. The pair finds demand as the US Dollar pares gains, led by easing trade tensions between the United States and China. Further upside appears capped as traders turn cautious ahead of the high-impact US CPI inflation data. 

GBP/USD remains offered below 1.3500 ahead of US CPI release

GBP/USD remains offered below 1.3500 ahead of US CPI release

GBP/USD maintains the offered tone below 1.3500 in Wednesday's European trading. The Pound Sterling stays defensive due to the disappointing UK employment report while the US Dollar holds steady amid US-China trade optimism, ahead of the May inflation data. 

Gold price struggles to capitalize on intraday move higher as traders keenly await US CPI report

Gold price struggles to capitalize on intraday move higher as traders keenly await US CPI report

Gold price seems to struggle to capitalize on modest intraday gains and remains below the overnight swing-high level as traders opt to wait for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The crucial consumer inflation data will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path, and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding Gold price.

US CPI data expected to show May inflation increase amid looming Trump’s tariffs impact

US CPI data expected to show May inflation increase amid looming Trump’s tariffs impact

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May is expected to highlight a pickup in inflation in the United States. Investors will scrutinize the details of the report to see whether US President Donald Trump’s new tariff regime is ramping up price pressures. As measured by the change in the CPI, inflation in the US is forecast to rise at an annual rate of 2.5% in May.

US-China trade talks plus economic resilience: A market that looks through the chaos

US-China trade talks plus economic resilience: A market that looks through the chaos

As US-China trade talks in London extend into a second day, investors are looking for direction amid a swirl of competing headlines—continued tariff threats, the Trump-Musk breakup, and civil unrest in LA. Risks are broadening across multiple fronts, but markets are holding firm.

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