GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD drops below 1.3500 after UK jobs data
GBP/USD stays under bearish pressure in the European session on Tuesday and trades below 1.3500. The data from the UK showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% in the three months to April, as expected. Markets await the outcome of US-China trade talks.
Latest Pound Sterling News
GBP/USD Technical Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declined below 40 and GBP/USD closed the last 4-hour candle well below 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), pointing to a buildup of bearish momentum.
GBP/USD faces a pivot level at 1.3500, where the 100-period SMA is located. In case the pair confirms this level as resistance, 1.3400 (200-period SMA) could be seen as next support before 1.3360 (lower limit of the ascending channel). Looking north, resistances could be spotted at 1.3540-1.3550 (20-period SMA, 50-period SMA) and 1.3600 (mid-point of the ascending channel, static level).
Fundamental Overview
GBP/USD stays under heavy bearish pressure on Tuesday and trades below 1.3500 as Pound Sterling struggles to find demand after the April employment report. The technical outlook suggests that the pair could extend its slide in the near term.
The UK's Office for National Statistics reported on Tuesday that the ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% in the three months to April. This marked the highest reading since June 2021. Other details of the report showed that the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Earnings Excluding Bonus, softened to 5.2% from 5.5%. This print came in below the market expectation of 5.4%. Pound Sterling struggles to find demand as investors assess the rising unemployment level and softer wage inflation as important factors that could lead to more Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts later this year.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals on growing optimism about the United States (US) and China resolving the trade dispute. Negotiators are scheduled to meet for a second day in London on Tuesday. Late Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that US President Donald Trump gave his representatives, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, room to lift export controls on a variety of Chinese products.
In the absence of high-tier data releases, headlines surrounding the US-China trade talks could drive the USD's performance. A positive outcome is likely to support the USD and further weigh on GBP/USD.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling bulls eye break above 1.3600 amid data-driven week Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) crawled higher against the US Dollar (USD) as the GBP/USD pair hit the highest level since February 2022, briefly above the 1.3600 mark.
Latest GBP Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1400 after EU Sentix data
EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1400 in European trading on Tuesday, failing to find any inspiration from strong Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data. The pair remains weighed by moderate US Dollar demand as traders eagerly await the outcome of the US-China trade talks.
GBP/USD drops below 1.3500 after UK jobs data
GBP/USD stays under bearish pressure in the European session on Tuesday and trades below 1.3500. The data from the UK showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% in the three months to April, as expected. Markets await the outcome of US-China trade talks.
Japanese Yen climbs to intraday high; USD/JPY downside seems limited amid modest USD strength
The Japanese Yen attracts some dip-buyers on Tuesday amid reviving safe-haven demand. The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations further benefit the JPY and cap the USD/JPY pair. US fiscal concerns keep the USD depressed near a multi-week low and weigh on spot prices.
Gold price traders seem non-committed and opt to wait for more details from US-China trade talks
Gold price attracts some dip-buyers on Tuesday, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction. The USD sticks to modest intraday gains and caps the XAU/USD pair amid trade optimism. Fed rate cut bets, US fiscal concerns, and geopolitical risks lend support to the commodity.
WTI hovers around $64.50, upside appears as potential US-China deal improves energy demand
WTI price may appreciate as easing US-China tariff tensions improve energy demand. US and Chinese advisors are set to meet again to reach a final trade deal. Iran would present a counter-proposal for a nuclear deal to the US.
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GBP/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBP/USD move this year? Our experts make a GBP/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 GBP/USD forecast!
GBP/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the GBP/USD 2025 Forecast , FXStreet Senior Analyst Dhwani Mehta indicates divergence between United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy expectations and Donald Trump’s announced protectionist measures may strengthen the US Dollar (USD).
The Fed is signaling a more cautious approach to monetary policy as it navigates strong economic growth and rising inflationary pressures under the new Trump administration.
In contrast, the Bank of England has adopted a more dovish stance amid a fragile UK economy. Market expectations are pricing in up to three quarter-point cuts in 2025.
From a technical point of view, the GBP/USD pair faces further downside after breaking below the 18-month rising wedge support at 1.2682, with the RSI in negative territory. Key support levels are 1.2037, 1.1802, and 1.1500, potentially leading to the 1.1000 mark. Recovery attempts face resistance at 1.2900, with bullish momentum only confirmed above 1.3490.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR GBP/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
Founded in 1694, the Bank of England (BoE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom (UK). Known as ‘The old lady of Threadneedle Street’, the bank’s mission is "to promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability".
The Bank of England is responsible for maintaining the UK’s economic stability. It operates monetary policy by adjusting the Bank Rate and, in certain circumstances, supplements this with measures such as quantitative easing.
The Bank of England decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
The official website , on X and YouTube
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey has been the Governor of the BoE since March 2020 and his appointment ends on March 2028. Previously, he served in the BoJ as its Chief Cashier, Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority.
Bailey on BoE's profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States.
As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).