USD/CAD Forecast and News


USD/CAD Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable below 1.3700; US/Canadian jobs data awaited

The USD/CAD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the second straight day on Friday and trades around the 1.3665 region during the early European session. Spot prices remain close to the year-to-date low touched on Thursday and seem vulnerable to sliding further.

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EUR/USD drops below 1.1400 after US NFP data

EUR/USD drops below 1.1400 after US NFP data

EUR/USD loses its traction and trades below 1.1400 in the second half of the day on Friday. The pair struggles to build on the ECB-inspired gains and looks to end the week little changed as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from the better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls reading for May.

GBP/USD stays below 1.3550 as markets assess US jobs data

GBP/USD stays below 1.3550 as markets assess US jobs data

GBP/USD remains under mild selling pressure and fluctuates below 1.3550 in the American trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar holds the upper hand on the upbeat employment data for May, making it difficult for the pair to reverse its direction.

Japanese Yen remains depressed against a broadly stronger USD; focus remains on US NFP report

Japanese Yen remains depressed against a broadly stronger USD; focus remains on US NFP report

The Japanese Yen attracts sellers for the second straight day in reaction to disappointing domestic data. The optimism over the resumption of US-China trade talks further undermines demand for the safe-haven JPY. The divergent BoJ-Fed expectations should limit JPY losses and cap USD/JPY ahead of the US NFP report.

Gold declines below $3,350 on renewed USD strength

Gold declines below $3,350 on renewed USD strength

Gold stays on the back foot and trades slightly below $3,350 in the American session. The US Dollar gains some positive traction as markets lean toward a Fed policy hold in July after the May report, causing XAU/USD to stretch lower heading into the weekend.

WTI consolidates around mid-$62.00s; looks to US NFP for fresh impetus

WTI consolidates around mid-$62.00s; looks to US NFP for fresh impetus

West Texas Intermediate US Crude Oil prices oscillate in a narrow band, around mid-$62.00s during the Asian session on Friday, and remain on track to register gains for the first time in three weeks.

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USD/CAD YEARLY FORECAST

How could USD/CAD move this year? Our experts make a USD/CAD update forecasting the possible moves of the Canadian dollar (CAD) - US dollar (USD) pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 USD/CAD forecast!

USD/CAD 2025 FORECAST

In the USD/CAD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Joshua Gibson suggests uncertainty and risk-off sentiment could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) early in 2025, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is expected to weaken in the first quarter. However, CAD investors may reassess prospects as the year progresses, focusing on the Federal Reserve (Fed) - Bank of Canada (BoC) policy dynamics.

From a technical point of view, USD/CAD could face a technical ceiling near the 1.4400 level after the Canadian Dollar's sharp 8.5% decline in 2024 sent the pair to 56-month highs. However, technical indicators like the MACD suggest caution, as short positions may only become viable once clear sell signals emerge, likely during the first quarter.

Read the full 2025 forecast.

MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR USD/CAD

The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.

Canada’s political crisis peaked in late 2024 with a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading to snap elections and a weakened Liberal minority government. Policy uncertainty and economic challenges dominate 2025’s outlook, raising concerns over market stability and investor confidence.

The BoC is set to continue easing interest rates through 2025, at least at a faster pace than the Fed is expected to, which could apply pressure on CAD’s already-rising rate differential.


INFLUENTIAL ORGANIZATIONS AND PEOPLE FOR THE USD/CAD

Bank of Canada (BoC)

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is the nation's central bank. Its principal role, as defined in the Bank of Canada Act, is "to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada." The bank's responsibilities are divided into four main areas:

The Bank of Canada (BoC) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC's primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening.

The Federal Reserve (Fed)

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.


Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

Tiff Macklem

Tiff Macklem was born in Montreal, Quebec, in 1961. He was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada effective June 3, 2020, for a seven-year term. He graduated from Queen's University with a bachelor's degree in economics and completed a master's degree and a PhD in economics, both from the University of Western Ontario.

Before becoming Governor, Macklem served as a director of the Bank of Nova Scotia and chair of its risk committee. He is chair of the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision, the oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, and co-chair of the Financial Stability Board's Regional Consultative Group for the Americas.

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About USD/CAD

The USD/CAD represents how many Canadian Dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one US Dollar (the base currency). The nickname “Loonie” originates from the Gold-colored Canadian one-dollar coin introduced in 1987 and produced by the Royal Canadian Mint in Winnipeg.
The coin reverse features a common loon, a bird found throughout Canada, while the obverse displays the portrait of Queen Elizabeth II, the nation's former head of state.

THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE ‘LOONIE’

The USD/CAD is one of the three “commodity pairs”, alongside AUD/USD and NZD/USD. These pairs are closely tied to commodity price fluctuations, particularly Oil.

Canada, known as a resource-based economy, is a major producer and supplier of Oil. Its leading export market is the United States, making the Canadian dollar (CAD) particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economic health.

Rising Oil prices typically have a negative effect on the USD and a positive effect on the CAD.

ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST

  • Commodities: As previously mentioned, Oil is the primary focus, but traders should also consider Gold and Natural Gas.
  • Currencies: The Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Euro (EUR). Another important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF and NZD/USD.
  • Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bonds) and T-Note 10Y (10-year US Treasury note).
  • Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bonds) and T-Note 10Y (10-year US Treasury note).