Michael Berman, PhD
Signal2Noise (S2N) News
S2N observations
Warren Buffet has done it again. Mr. Wonderful has increased Berkshire’s cash holdings to a record $347 billion and completely sidestepped all the market turmoil this year and resigned at the top of his game.
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The famed investor delivered more than a 5,500,000% return on Berkshire’s stock. The man is a genius and someone who has made a real difference to the world with his prodigious talent.
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Just a concluding thought about the stock market.
If you make the mistake of judging your performance every time you look at the performance of your portfolio, then you are bound to second-guess your decisions.
We now have many bears throwing in the towel thinking they made a mistake; this was a buy the dip moment. I disagree. Markets were very expensive prior to the tariff wrecking ball, and the reality of the situation still needs to wash through the system. Keep you on the prize and leave the day-to-day market prognosticating to the talking heads on TV and X. The S&P 500 is still in a -7% drawdown, which I believe will soon start to increase.
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S2N screener alert
The S&P 500 has been up 9 days in a row, which has happened only 19 times in 50 years. The last time was in November 2004.
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This is not financial advice. I have not considered your individual circumstances. I propose actionable insights from a hypothetical general global macro strategist's point of view, trying to achieve above-average risk-adjusted returns whilst considering the major macro themes currently in play. I am not licenced to provide individualised financial advice; therefore, any investment decision you make is solely your responsibility.
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GBP/USD meets firm resistance around 1.3450
GBP/USD trades with a slight positive bias, meeting some resistance around the 1.3450 zone while market participants adjust to the steady hand by the Bank of England (BoE) and the flattish mood surrounding the Greenback.
EUR/USD consolidates around 1.1480, Dollar remains flat
EUR/USD treads water in the sub-1.1500 region on Thursday, always against the backdrop of an equally vacillating US Dollar and reduced volatility in the global markets as investors continue to assess Wednesday’s FOMC event as well as steady escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Gold alternates gains with losses near $3,370
Gold regains traction and set aside an earlier drop to the $3,350 zone per troy ounce on Thursday, now lingering around $3,370 on the back of persistent geopolitical effervescence, thin trading conditions, and a marginal uptick in the US Dollar.
Bitcoin on the verge of a breakdown amid possible US strike on Iran
Bitcoin price finds support around the 50-day EMA at $103,100; a decisive close below this level could trigger a sharp correction. Reports that US officials are preparing for a strike on Iran in the coming days could further weigh on sentiment.
In the Eurozone, inflation is also a monetary phenomenon
Monetary aggregates continue to be closely monitored by the European Central Bank (ECB), a sign that, despite the passage of time and the increasing complexity of financing circuits, quantitative theory remains relevant.
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